November 2015

A Bayesian approach to complex clinical diagnoses:  a case-study in child abuse

Frank Dunstan,  Cardiff University

Venue:  Harris building, room HB307, University of Central Lancashire

Date:  Thursday 26-11-2015, 3 - 4pm 

Identification of child abuse is often extremely difficult and both false positives and false negatives are very important.  Following some controversial legal cases concerning child abuse, the use of expert opinion came under scrutiny and the need for sound methods to quantify the evidence for such opinion was highlighted.

In this talk an approach for doing this will be presented, illustrated by a case study related to one of the controversial cases in which both the probability of abuse and the accompanying uncertainty can be estimated. This work highlighted the shortage of primary studies which form the basis of the evidence and some of the difficulties in performing such studies will be described using current work as illustrations.